As we mark the first anniversary of Dobbs, it’s important to prepare for this fall’s off-year elections. Roe caught pro-lifers off-guard in 1973 because, prior to that decision, abortion policy had been fought out almost exclusively at the state level. Roe suddenly federalized the question. Now the pro-life movement faces an almost reverse challenge. Nearly half a century of federalized control (more precisely, federal court control) of abortion policy has caused pro-life strength in some states to atrophy. Last year’s elections made clear that pro-abortionists will mobilize their formidable communication and data resources to fight in the states, including bringing in considerable out-of-state muscle (as in the case of Wisconsin’s judicial elections this past spring) to influence local voting.

However, it’s not just a question of local outcomes, important as they are. Pro-abortion victories allow their side to proclaim it has “momentum,” and that “Americans stand behind Roe.” The Democrats’ narrow tent has already banished pro-life sentiment on the national level; we should not be surprised if there were a like effort to abortionize state politics as well. But since women vote (the assumption being “real women” vote pro-abortion)—whereas the unborn do not—politicians with no commitment to principle but every desire to placate local constituencies may ignore the unborn, complicating our ability to use democratic processes to protect life.

Off-year voting will occur in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. Three of these states will go to the polls on the traditional election date, this year, November 7. Louisiana votes later, on November 18. New Jersey and Virginia will vote for both chambers of their state legislatures. In deep blue New Jersey, Democrats hold the state Senate 25/15, the General Assembly 45/34. Control is unlikely to shift, although the 2021 elections were much closer than expected for Democratic Governor Phil Murphy and resulted in some upsets in the Legislature. More Republican gains in New Jersey would likely bolster pro-life witness, although pro-life legislation would likely suffer Murphy’s veto.

Virginia will be the laser-focus of pro-abortionists. With the upset gubernatorial victory of Glenn Youngkin in 2021, the sole barrier to restoring pro-life measures is the state Senate, where Democrats hold 22 seats to the Republican’s 18. Republicans hold the House of Delegates 50/46. The split led to a stalemate in this year’s short legislative session: Pro-life bills died in the Senate; pro-abortion bills died in the House of Delegates. This left in place the relatively liberal abortion regime established under former (Democratic) governors Ralph Northam and Terry McAuliffe.

A key legislative initiative killed this year was an effort to write a pro-abortion guarantee into the Virginia state constitution. Under Virginia law, a constitutional amendment must be adopted in two successive legislative sessions and then placed on public referendum. Democrats had hoped to secure an affirmative first vote this year, then use it to take control of the lower house and ram the amendment through next year. Although they failed, it’s likely they will make the failure a campaign issue, hoping to mobilize key concentrations of voters in northern Virginia (the Washington suburbs) and the Richmond-to-Virginia Beach corridor. A Republican focus on parental rights—a continuing neuralgic issue in local schools—could blunt that effort.

As well as the State Senate (36/15 Republican majority) and the State House (77/40 Republican majority), Mississippi, the birthplace of Dobbs, will pick a governor and other senior executive officials this year. While prolifers are unlikely to suffer significant losses, it’s possible Democrats—invoking the June 8 Allen v. Milligan Supreme Court decision invalidating Alabama’s federal redistricting map as “diluting minority voting”—will claim the Mississippi and Louisiana legislatures are “gerrymandered” and so need reapportionment more to blue’s liking.

Louisiana, like Mississippi a staunchly pro-life state, picks its governor, senior executive officials, the State Senate (27/12 Republican majority) and State House (71/33 Republican majority). Voting 11 days later it’s possible (though unlikely) that earlier pro-life or pro-abortion results in other states could affect the election. It’s more likely, however, that in the wake of earlier outcomes, both sides (and especially pro-abortionists) could make a last-minute push in the Pelican State.

In sum, the real legislative prize this year is Virginia: Whichever side to take control of both chambers would claim victory and have significant influence on abortion policy in the state. A Republican win of the Senate (while holding the House) would enable enactment of pro-life legislation, including issues that should generally appeal in the state, e.g., parental involvement in a minor’s abortion. A Democratic win of the House (while holding the Senate) would make life difficult for Governor Youngkin, forcing him to veto pro-abortion legislation. He could not, however, prevent a state constitutional amendment from winning legislative approval.

Prolifers also need to focus on Ohio, where abortion advocates, following up on a similar (successful) effort in Michigan in November 2022, will attempt to use a November referendum to straitjacket extreme abortion rights—euphemistically framed as “codifying Roe”—into the Ohio state constitution. And they should keep an eye on local elections, especially in those states that elect judges. These typically low-profile elections generally bring out only the party faithful, so any significant surge of voters and/or money (in-state or out) can have a disproportionate impact on outcomes.

The outcomes of such votes in swing states like Ohio and Virginia could significantly inflate or deflate the sails of prolifers and abortionists going into the 2024 elections, when legislatures in 44 states will be up for grabs. The handful of states voting in 2023 give each side larger-than-life influence to shape the results. Prolifers don’t have the luxury of taking off the summer.